The economic calendar is expected to be mostlyquiet with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey and manufacturing data highlighting the schedule. The stock market will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
Since the start of November, all three major indexes are higher with the Nasdaq (^IXIC) up about 10% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up almost 8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has risen almost 6%.
The economic narrative began to tilt last week, as October’s surprise inflation print revealed consumer prices increased at a slower pace than expected. Investors took this and other data suggesting the economy is moderating as a signal the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates and could be successful in engineering a “soft landing” in which inflation retreats to the central bank’s 2% target without a recession.
Still, economists warn investors should not quite celebrate this outcome yet. Oxford Economics’ lead US economist Michael Pearce doesn’t see the Fed’s fight against inflation as complete, even if he agrees interest rates are unlikely to rise further.
“While there is probably more good news on shelter and core goods prices coming down the pike over the next few months, that is not enough to convince the Fed that inflation is on a sustained path back to 2%,” Pearce wrote in a research note on Friday. “That will require more softening in labor markets, which is likely to be a protracted affair, keeping the Fed on hold until well into the second half of next year.”
This week’s big corporate event will be earnings out of Nvidia, which should have repercussions across the market.
The company’s blowout earnings sent the market roaring higher at the end of May as this year’s AI hype cycle kicked into high gear. This narrative appeared to cool towards the end of the summer, with many of the so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks falling along with the broader market through early fall.
Nvidia stock, however, has of late taken up the mantle as a market leader again, rising more than 20% since the start of November. Year-to-date, Nvidia stock is up nearly 240%.
Wall Street expects the company to report adjusted earnings per share of $3.39 on revenue of $16.11 billion, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“We expect NVDA to beat/raise consensus when it reports on Nov. 21,” Bank of America research analyst Vivek Arya wrote in a note previewing the earrings release. The firm remains positive on the stock, calling the valuation “compelling” and noting seasonal trends remain favorable.
A recent report from Goldman Sachs showed that the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks currently make up nearly 30% of the S&P 500 and have driven the majority of the S&P 500’s gains this year.
As a group, the “Magnificent 7” are up around 70% this year while the remaining 493 members of the S&P 500 are up closer to 6%. The index has risen 17.5% this year as of the close on Friday.
Elsewhere on the corporate side, investors will digest another look at the consumer as Best Buy, Lowe’s, and Dick’s Sporting Goods are all set to report results.