Bloomberg reported losses on Treasury bond with maturities of 10 years or more had notched 46% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged 53%.
Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008.
Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%.
That crash came as the former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker grappled with historic inflation and pushed the federal funds rate to just under 20%.
While interest rates remain well below that level today, the central bank’s aggressive turn toward monetary tightening in the post-pandemic era has caused a similar bond-market rout. And traders have continued selling amid concerns of rebounding inflation, while a deluge of Treasury issuance this year has also pressured bond prices.
Long-duration yields have climbed to their highest since 2007 as a result, with the 30-year note passing the 5% barrier for the first time in decades. Investors expect a similar path for the 10-year, which is hovering at just more than 4.7%. Well-known investors, including Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, and Bill Gross see the 10-year hitting 5% in the near term.